user journey map: first thread to mastery

derived from learning curves analysis of 4,656 threads | 9 months | 20 users

journey overview

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                                                                                 │
│  FIRST THREAD ─→ LEARNING CURVE ─→ PLATEAU ─→ MASTERY                          │
│                                                                                 │
│  week 1-2         month 1-2          month 3-4      month 5+                   │
│  ────────         ─────────          ─────────      ────────                   │
│  discovery        calibration        stabilization  optimization               │
│  68 turns avg     →45 turns          →35 turns      →28 turns                  │
│  0.22 steering    →0.15              →0.12          →0.09                       │
│                                                                                 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

stage 1: discovery (week 1-2)

characteristics

metric	typical value	what it means
avg turns	68+	exploring capabilities, unsure when to stop
steering	0.22+	frequent course corrections needed
success rate	~40%	many abandoned or unresolved threads
first message	vague, no file refs	”make the auth better”

user experience

overwhelmed by capabilities — unclear what agent can/cannot do
underspecified prompts — insufficient context leads to agent guessing
premature abandonment — gives up before 26 turns
rescue-mode oracle — uses oracle as panic button, not planning tool

evidence (verbose_explorer, month 1)

june 2025:  197 avg turns, 1.13 steering
            → early adoption friction visible

success markers for stage exit

completed one thread with @file references
reached 26+ turns without abandoning
used verification command before declaring done

stage 2: calibration (month 1-2)

characteristics

metric	typical value	improvement from stage 1
avg turns	45-55	-25% thread length
steering	0.15-0.20	-30% corrections needed
success rate	50-55%	+15pp
first message	300-1500 chars, some file refs	beginning to structure context

user experience

learning the rhythm — understands approve/steer cadence
discovering file references — realizes @mentions boost success +25pp
calibrating message length — finds the 300-1500 char sweet spot
first successful marathon — completes a 50+ turn thread successfully

behavioral shifts

from	to
declarative openers	imperative/interrogative
no file refs	@file mentions
rescue oracle	planning oracle
abandon at friction	push through to 26+ turns

evidence (aggregate trend)

july 2025:  46.2 avg turns (vs 75.1 in may)
            → 38% reduction in thread length

success markers for stage exit

2:1 approval:steering ratio maintained
using oracle for planning, not rescue
successful spawned subtask delegation

stage 3: stabilization (month 3-4)

characteristics

metric	typical value	improvement from stage 2
avg turns	35-40	-20% thread length
steering	0.10-0.15	-30% corrections needed
success rate	60-65%	+10pp
first message	structured, file refs, verification criteria	mature opener pattern

user experience

consistent patterns — same opener structure every thread
domain vocabulary emerges — speaks at expert level without explanation tax
approval automation — brief confirmations (“yes”, “ship it”, “go on”)
steering prevention — context quality prevents rather than corrects

behavioral signatures

opener template established:
  @src/auth/login.ts @src/auth/types.ts
  
  the login handler isn't validating refresh tokens. 
  add validation that checks expiry and signature.
  
  run `pnpm test src/auth` when done.

evidence (verbose_explorer improvement)

oct-nov 2025:  35 avg turns, 0.15 steering
               → stabilized from early chaos

success markers for stage exit

consistent opener pattern across 10+ threads
domain vocabulary established (unique terms appearing)
handoff chains working smoothly (read_thread references)

stage 4: optimization (month 5+)

characteristics

metric	typical value	improvement from stage 3
avg turns	23-30	-25% thread length
steering	0.09 or less	-40% corrections needed
success rate	65-82%	+5-20pp
first message	tailored to task type	interrogative for exploration, imperative for known fixes

user experience

effortless efficiency — tasks complete with minimal friction
style matched to task — questions for exploration, commands for fixes
verification gates automatic — test runs before every commit
strategic tool usage — spawn for parallel, oracle for complex

evidence (verbose_explorer mastery)

jan 2026:  22.7 avg turns, 0.09 steering
           → 68% reduction from first month

the three archetypes at mastery

different users reach mastery via different paths:

the efficient operator (steady_navigator pattern)

trajectory: efficient from start, minimal learning curve
signature:  low steering (0.10), fast threads (36 turns), 67% success
style:      interrogative openers, frequent approval, visual grounding
lesson:     prompt craft matters more than experience

the marathon runner (concise_commander pattern)

trajectory: long sessions, high steering, but still resolves
signature:  high turns (86), high steering (0.81), 71% success  
style:      socratic questions, wait interrupts, never quits
lesson:     persistence + steering = success on hard problems

the architect (precision_pilot pattern)

trajectory: massive context front-loading pays off
signature:  4280 char openers, 73 turns, 82% success
style:      architectural framing, design-doc-quality first messages
lesson:     if task is complex, explain it fully upfront

week 1-2:   DISCOVERY
            └─ complete first successful thread with file refs
            
month 1:    EARLY CALIBRATION  
            └─ establish 2:1 approval:steering ratio
            └─ hit 300-1500 char sweet spot
            
month 2:    LATE CALIBRATION
            └─ use oracle for planning (not rescue)
            └─ first successful spawn delegation
            
month 3:    EARLY STABILIZATION
            └─ consistent opener template
            └─ domain vocabulary emerging
            
month 4:    LATE STABILIZATION
            └─ handoff chains working (read_thread)
            └─ verification gates automatic
            
month 5+:   OPTIMIZATION
            └─ style matched to task type
            └─ <25 turn threads with 65%+ success

critical transitions

transition 1: discovery → calibration

trigger: first successful 50+ turn thread
blocker: vague prompts, no file refs, premature abandonment

intervention:

mandate @file references in every opener
set minimum 26-turn commitment before abandonment
reframe oracle as planning tool

transition 2: calibration → stabilization

trigger: consistent 2:1 approval:steering ratio
blocker: inconsistent opener quality, rescue-mode oracle usage

intervention:

standardize opener template
practice brief approval vocabulary (“yes”, “ship it”)
spawn delegation for parallel work

transition 3: stabilization → optimization

trigger: domain vocabulary established, handoffs working
blocker: one-size-fits-all prompting, missing verification gates

intervention:

match style to task (interrogative vs imperative)
mandatory test runs before commit
strategic skill usage (dig for debug, spawn for parallel)

learning rate indicators

fast le@swift_solverrs (2-3 month path):

drop below 0.15 steering by month 2
establish domain vocabulary early
consistent opener pattern by month 3

moderate le@swift_solverrs (4-5 month path):

stabilize around 0.15-0.20 steering
gradual vocabulary development
template consistency by month 4

slow le@swift_solverrs (6+ month path):

steering remains 0.20+
inconsistent opener quality
may never establish domain vocabulary

metrics to track progression

metric	discovery	calibration	stabilization	optimization
avg turns	68+	45-55	35-40	23-30
steering	0.22+	0.15-0.20	0.10-0.15	<0.10
success rate	~40%	50-55%	60-65%	65-82%
approval:steering	<1:1	1-2:1	2:1	>2:1
file refs	rare	sometimes	usually	always
verification	never	sometimes	usually	always

intervention points

if stuck in discovery (>1 month):

pair with power user for 5 threads
mandate @file refs (no exceptions)
set 26-turn minimum before abandonment

if stuck in calibration (>2 months):

review 10 threads for approval:steering ratio
practice brief approval vocabulary
oracle usage audit (planning vs rescue)

if stuck in stabilization (>3 months):

establish domain vocabulary explicitly
standardize opener template
handoff chain practice (read_thread)

generated: 2026-01-09 | clint_glitterski

user journey map: first thread to mastery

journey overview

stage 1: discovery (week 1-2)

characteristics

user experience

evidence (verbose_explorer, month 1)

success markers for stage exit

stage 2: calibration (month 1-2)

characteristics

user experience

behavioral shifts

evidence (aggregate trend)

success markers for stage exit

stage 3: stabilization (month 3-4)

characteristics

user experience

behavioral signatures

evidence (verbose_explorer improvement)

success markers for stage exit

stage 4: optimization (month 5+)

characteristics

user experience

evidence (verbose_explorer mastery)

the three archetypes at mastery

the efficient operator (steady_navigator pattern)

the marathon runner (concise_commander pattern)

the architect (precision_pilot pattern)

journey timeline (modal path)

critical transitions

transition 1: discovery → calibration

transition 2: calibration → stabilization

transition 3: stabilization → optimization

learning rate indicators

metrics to track progression

intervention points

if stuck in discovery (>1 month):

if stuck in calibration (>2 months):

if stuck in stabilization (>3 months):